Predicting the extinction of HIV-2 in rural Guinea-Bissau.
Fryer HR., Van Tienen C., Van Der Loeff MS., Aaby P., Da Silva ZJ., Whittle H., Rowland-Jones SL., de Silva TI.
OBJECTIVE: This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly. DESIGN: A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau. METHODS: An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections. RESULTS: HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly. CONCLUSION: HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.